Monday, January 24, 2011

On Hindsight

Have you ever looked back and something you did and asked yourself what you were thinking? There are times when we glance back at yesterday and have no idea what prompted us to think that was a good idea. I've talked about regret and how it's only after the damage has been done that we learn the lesson from our error in judgement. What is it about hindsight though that brings the clarity of vision? What was clouding our sight before that we didn't see what could go wrong? Maybe it's ego or maybe it's simply a lapse in reason. At the time it may meet the criteria of being a good idea, but afterwards we finally have all the facts and notice that the whole thing was destined to fail from the start. So how do we get the same level of foresight that we have with hindsight? Is it ever possible? I've talked about how life is a constant stream of lessons. Some are more painful than others. Some have to be taught to us multiple times before we really learn.

Sometimes looking back we realize that maybe it wasn't exactly a mistake, but it's hard to find the logic that went into making the decision in the first place. We've all had situations where even with others telling us their opinions, which may run contrary to how we feel, we go off and do whatever we feel is the best course of action. In the end that's really all life is though, doing what we think is best with the information we have at the time. Life is pretty fluid and what works today may not necessarily work tomorrow. I think that has a tendency to change how perception of past events as well. Walking into a situation or decision we believe one thing, and it's very possible that we're right in what we're about to do. Then something changes, even slightly, and what was going to work just fine is now about to jump off the rails. Or it may not even be as drastic as all that. It could instead just have changed enough that it's no longer ideal.

Companies do this all the time. They go off in some bold new direction because the market or research indicates it's the best thing at the time. In some cases they're successful and continue on with their decision because like most people we all tend to stick with something that works for as long as possible. In other cases though the decision is reversed because it simply doesn't work. I wonder if the people in charge of those massive decisions realize that they're wading into a blunder or simply don't see it. In some cases there is a bit of pride involved with those decisions. No one likes to have someone tell them "I told you so" so rather than admit the mistake they just continue on with it. I get this reaction, having done it myself several times, however, there isn't a whole lot of logic to back it up. As I mentioned what works today may not work for tomorrow, but often times a bad decision is bad regardless of the day. Going further with it and not acknowledging the error only makes recovery that much harder in the long run. I think about certain decisions by large companies that merged together, only to never fully realize the vision that they had set out for themselves. Rather than correcting the problem, they plod along in mediocrity for several years until the decision becomes so overwhelming that it's impossible to move forward with it. At that point everything is so clear that one has to wonder what took them so long to finally see it, or at least do something about it.

There is a somewhat disconcerting thought that at any moment we're either in a situation that will have been reversed down the road or we're correcting something that we've already done and feel needs changing. I've heard the phrase "Your first instinct is usually the right one." I think the first time I heard it used was when preparing for a test. If you weren't sure of the answer just go with your first instinct, because second guessing yourself would not only waste time, but often wouldn't get you any closer to the correct answer. Some people live life with that same philosophy. I'm not saying it's wrong to do that. In fact in a lot of cases I've found that over-thinking the situation only causes me more stress. That's not to say that you should jump into something without giving it the proper consideration. There is a difference between being rational regarding the logic of a decision and talking yourself out of something because you've stalled the process with indecision. No matter how many ways you look at something or analyze all the various possibilities it's next to impossible to know all the different ways something is going to turn out. For some the idea of not knowing how it could turn out paralyses them from ever making a decision. Instead they choose to commit to nothing. To essentially do nothing. At least then they know how it's going to turn out, even if they don't like it. Part of the whole Devil you know thing I guess. At least for me, I've gotten tired of the sheer exhaustion I feel after stressing about all the various ways things could turn out. The thing is no matter what happens, things will eventually go one way or another. Whether we're prepared for them or not, we'll be forced to deal with it.

Often times it doesn't go exactly how we had planned anyway so our meticulous planning gets appended or just thrown out the window. So what does that say about all the energy and time we spent preparing for a scenario that never happened? It seems like maybe that energy could be better spent on the doing rather than the preparing. Unfortunately for us, we can't always see the big picture until we step back from the situation and see all the angles. If that's the case then how informed are our decisions at any given moment? We won't have all the information until it's already too late. Now I'm not saying that you should give up planning or stop preparing for things you know that are coming. It's just that even something we think is a good idea right now may down the road become not as good. So we go about changing it, wondering why we did that in the first place. After that we could potentially change that second decision or even go back to the original idea. Every decision we make and idea that we have is open to potential change down the road. Life seems to be a constant series of looking in the rear view mirror and making adjustments on what we just saw, while at the same time correcting our course as we move forward. It makes me wonder though if today will look like a good idea tomorrow.